A “city-killer” asteroid now poses a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in December 2023, according to NASA data released Tuesday. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is being closely monitored by the international astronomical community.
Experts say there’s no need for alarm, despite the increasing odds. The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid next month. Bruce Betts, chief scientist of the Planetary Society, stated that as more data is gathered, the probability will increase before rapidly dropping to zero.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability crossed one percent. NASA’s latest calculations estimate the risk at 3.1%, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032. This translates to odds of correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.
Astronomers estimate the asteroid’s size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, based on its brightness. Analysis suggests it has a typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid. The potential impact corridor spans across multiple continents.
There is ample time to act. NASA’s DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid’s path. Scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers or nuclear explosions, to pull the asteroid off course.
Source: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250218-city-killer-asteroid-now-has-3-1-chance-of-hitting-earth-nasa