Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be about 180 feet in diameter, was initially thought to have a high chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, new data from NASA has significantly reduced the likelihood of a strike, dropping it from 3.1% to just 0.5%.
The asteroid’s trajectory is still being refined as astronomers continue to gather more information. Once confirmed, scientists expect the threat level to drop to zero, indicating that YR4 poses no risk to Earth.
YR4 has the potential to release massive energy in the event of a strike, estimated at around 8 megatons – a significant threat to urban areas but not capable of causing global devastation.
Despite the reduced odds, there is still a small chance that YR4 will miss Earth entirely and sail past both our planet and the moon. The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile initially detected the asteroid on December 27, 2024, with scientists later determining it had a more than 1% chance of hitting Earth.
An international team of scientists has been granted emergency access to the James Webb Space Telescope to further assess YR4’s risk. As more data comes in over the next few months, astronomers expect to become more confident that the asteroid poses no threat to Earth, and the threat level will drop to zero.
Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/nasa-just-changed-odds-asteroid-141934905.html