A large asteroid, 2024 YR4, once thought to be unlikely to hit Earth in 2032, now has a slightly higher chance of colliding with the Moon instead. According to NASA, this likelihood has more than doubled from 1.7% to 3.8%. The asteroid’s size is estimated to be between 53-67 meters (about the size of a 10-storey building), as confirmed by James Webb Space Telescope observations.
Although the probability of impact remains low at 96.2%, NASA and Professor Mark Burchell, a space scientist, believe it could offer a rare chance to observe a real collision and study the Moon’s response. The asteroid is expected to be observed again next month for further analysis.
The increased likelihood highlights the possibility that other asteroids may have passed closer to Earth without being detected, potentially having caused smaller impacts or atmospheric burns. The Moon’s surface bears craters formed by past asteroid and comet collisions, underscoring its exposure to space debris.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpdznz83x8vo