Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano off the Oregon coast, may erupt between July 2024 and the end of 2025, according to researchers. The team, led by geophysicist William Chadwick, analyzed indicators such as surface swelling and increased seismic activity.
The surface of Axial Seamount swelled in November to nearly the same height as before its last eruption in 2015, suggesting magma accumulation and pressure build-up. This phenomenon has occurred before several eruptions, including those in 1997, 2011, and 2015.
Axial Seamount is one of the most active underwater volcanoes in the Northeast Pacific, with frequent eruptions providing opportunities to test ideas and gather valuable data on submarine volcanic processes. The recent installation of advanced instruments has enhanced researchers’ ability to forecast eruptions.
If an eruption occurs in 2025, it would be a significant achievement in predicting underwater eruptions. Researchers believe detecting early warning signals could allow for the deployment of remotely operated vehicles to catch the eruption in progress.
However, while Axial Seamount poses minimal immediate threat to human populations due to its remote location, its potential eruption raises questions about preparedness. The team’s goal is to create a robust system that can provide timely warnings and improve preparedness for potential eruptions, ultimately contributing to safer coastal communities worldwide.
The monitoring system has proven valuable in the past, validating predictions made by Chadwick and his team during the 2015 eruption. By analyzing seismic data using artificial intelligence, researchers aim to identify patterns that may serve as precursors to future eruptions.
The predicted eruption offers a unique opportunity to study its effects on the surrounding environment, including insights into hydrothermal systems and nearby biological communities. Ultimately, Axial Seamount serves as a critical testing ground for predictive models, enhancing eruption forecast accuracy and contributing to a better understanding of submarine volcanic processes.
Source: https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-835644