As Election Day approaches, offshore betting markets have shifted their predictions, indicating a closer contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Sunday, Trump’s probability of winning had dropped to 55% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, while his chances were slightly higher on two major UK betting platforms.
However, in October, Trump’s odds jumped to their widest margin since July, despite some questioning the sudden increase due to concerns about tampering with the betting markets. Polymarket officials are investigating these claims.
The gap between Trump and Harris’ odds narrowed significantly after a period where they were as wide as Biden-Trump’s gap in 2020. However, battleground-state polling remains steady, with only two states considered toss-ups by Real Clear Politics.
Bettors have pushed Trump’s probability of winning higher than in previous elections, including the Republican National Convention. According to a study, the clear betting favorite has lost only twice in the month before an election. Nevertheless, the current betting odds suggest Kamala Harris is closing in on Donald Trump, making their contest increasingly competitive.
Source: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/31/presidential-election-odds-2024-polls-betting/75628466007