China’s AI boom has been gaining traction globally, but a top AI scientist questions whether Chinese firms can overtake US leaders in the next three to five years. Justin Lin, technical lead of Alibaba’s Qwen AI models, estimates the chances are below 20 percent and even thinks 20 percent is too optimistic.
Despite fanfare around DeepSeek’s powerful AI model built at a fraction of the cost of American equivalents, Chinese companies face constraints such as restricted access to advanced chips and limited capital. Experts point to these constraints as lingering bottlenecks in developing frontier models.
However, Chinese firms have taken an aggressive approach by making AI models available for public use (open-source), which has helped them make notable gains. Companies are rolling out AI applications for real-world uses in manufacturing, e-commerce, and robotics.
Chinese companies’ strategy to compete with US rivals includes using open models to accelerate progress and reduce costs. This approach not only reduces costs but also lessens Chinese companies’ exposure to geopolitical risks.
While Chinese models reign supreme in the open model space, closed models developed by US heavyweights continue to dominate overall performance benchmarks. Bottlenecks remain due to constraints on computing power and capital.
Despite these challenges, experts caution against underestimating China’s long-term prospects. Chinese companies have excelled at rapid deployment in consumer-facing applications and integrating AI into industrial use. Beijing has also made AI application a focus, unveiling an action plan to deepen the use of AI in manufacturing.
The bigger challenge for China seeking to pull ahead of the US is cultural: a shortage of risk-takers, despite an abundance of top-tier talent. Yao Shunyu, a former OpenAI researcher, believes that can China overcome this cultural hurdle and lead the creation of new paradigms?
China’s AI industry is not stagnating; it’s evolving to compete with US rivals through open models. While gaps persist, experts see potential for Chinese firms to catch up or even surpass US leaders in the long run.
Key statistics:
– 1.2% global usage of open models in late 2024
– 30% global usage of open models last year (2025 study by OpenRouter)
– Over 400 open Qwen models released by Alibaba, yielding over 1 billion downloads
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/10/tech/china-us-ai-race-challenges-intl-hnk-dst