A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, causing widespread destruction and over 5,000 deaths. The quake was devastating, but scientists had anticipated it due to the Sagaing Fault’s long history of similar earthquakes.
Researchers analyzed the quake’s effects and created a computer model to predict future seismic activity along the fault. Their findings suggest that large-magnitude earthquakes occur irregularly every 141 years, with the next potential quake in 2166.
While the model provides some insight into the Sagaing Fault’s behavior, it has significant uncertainties due to the complex nature of earthquake science. Seismologists can only make probabilistic predictions, not precise forecasts.
The study highlights the importance of continued research into seismic activity and its relationship with tectonic plate movements. By better understanding these connections, scientists hope to develop more accurate hazard assessments and enable cities like San Francisco to prepare for potential disasters.
Scientists are currently working to improve their models by analyzing past ruptures and developing new methods to measure tectonic stress. As researchers continue to refine their understanding of seismic activity, they may be able to provide more accurate forecasts, enabling communities to take proactive steps to mitigate disaster risks.
Source: https://www.dw.com/en/can-myanmars-2025-quake-data-predict-the-next-big-one/a-73619761