Cardano [ADA] is facing a crucial test as its price struggles to break above $1. The whales, which control 35.62% of the supply, are now dumping their coins rather than buying them up. This behavior has led analysts to question whether the $1 target is still achievable.
The most dominant force in Cardano’s on-chain structure, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA, have been accumulating heavily since mid-January but have since offloaded their coins. Their share of the supply dropped from 35.51% to 34.41%, causing the price to slide back down to $0.60.
However, despite this dip, whales are now buying into the “dip” and pushing their holdings up again. Nevertheless, three months later, the price still sits below their average cost basis, indicating that they remain underwater. This could lead to a further sell-off as some of them start cutting to break even.
The technical analysis suggests that RSI is approaching an oversold zone, which has historically triggered sharp mean reversions. However, without a pickup in relative strength and with speculative interest dwindling, the momentum remains flat. The lack of conviction buyers and rotational flows adds to the fragile picture, making the $1 milestone look more like resistance than recovery.
Growing signs of whale fatigue also raise the probability of a capitulation flush, putting ADA’s $0.60 support on thin ice. As the whales continue to test the patience of investors, it remains to be seen whether they can overcome their current behavior and break above $1.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/is-cardanos-1-target-a-stretch-why-a-breakdown-could-be-near