The College Football Playoff (CFP) season is underway, with teams on the bubble facing critical early tests. Among these contenders are Group of 5 conference champions, who have a higher chance to reach the playoff than at-large bids.
Boise State is ranked No. 25 in the preseason AP Top 25 and boasts the highest chance to reach the playoff (25%) among all Group of 5 teams. The Broncos’ upcoming trip to South Florida could determine which league champion gets ranked higher, as both teams can win their respective conferences.
Other Group of 5 contenders, such as Tulane, UNLV, Memphis, and Navy, have a slim chance to make the playoff, with Tulsa ranking second among all Group of 5 contenders. Liberty, the top contender in Conference USA, has only a 1.2% chance to reach the playoff despite having a 36.2% chance to win its league.
To overcome their low chances, these teams need to excel early and maintain a strong season. Tulane’s Sept. 20 trip to Ole Miss is crucial for its playoff bid, while UNLV must beat Boise State on Oct. 18 to impress the selection committee. Memphis hosts Arkansas on Sept. 20 in an attempt to show it can beat a middle-of-the-pack SEC team, and Navy faces a tough challenge against Notre Dame on Nov. 8.
With the CFP season just beginning, teams on the bubble face immense pressure to perform well early on. A strong regular season is crucial for overcoming their low chances of making the playoff.
Source: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46042949/college-football-playoff-2025-preseason-bubble-watch