The Kansas City Chiefs are set to face the Houston Texans in their divisional-round playoff matchup on January 18, but they may struggle due to several factors analyzed by Pro Football Network (PFN). Here’s why:
Firstly, PFN notes that the Chiefs have a poor first-quarter record, losing every game and being outscored by an average of 3.5 points per half. In contrast, the Texans have a +3.9 point advantage per first half when starting quarterback C.J. Stroud is in the game.
Secondly, the Texans have shown improvement in non-blitzed pressure rates, ranking 8th in weeks 15-14 compared to 18th in the previous 14 games. This trend could give them an edge against the Chiefs.
Thirdly, six of the Texans’ top-7 third-down games have occurred on the road or against playoff teams, including their Week 16 matchup at Arrowhead Stadium where they converted 53.8% of their third downs.
Lastly, PFN’s analysis reveals that the Chiefs finished the regular season with a +4.31 win total above their metrics, while the Texans were +2.41 wins above expected, showcasing the latter team’s strength in recent games.
Source: https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/lists/4-reasons-why-chiefs-might-lose-to-texans-in-divisional-round-of-nfl-playoffs