China is likely to use a partial blockade, also known as a quarantine, as an opening salvo against Taiwan. This tactic offers strong advantages for Beijing, including no commitment to full-scale war and the potential to weaken Taiwan’s economy.
A quarantine would involve limited controls on access to Taiwan, such as banning specific goods or restricting ship access to certain ports. The Chinese coastguard would enforce these measures using nominally non-military forces. This approach allows China to test its authority without sparking a full-scale confrontation.
The benefits of quarantine for Beijing include avoiding the risk of military confrontation, which could frighten shipping companies away from the Taiwan Strait and severely affect China’s economy. In contrast, a blockade would raise expectations of imminent conquest and make it difficult for Taiwan to back down.
A quarantine would also enable China to strengthen its narrative that it has control over Taiwan without facing significant resistance. The Chinese coastguard has already shown increased intrusiveness in waters around Taiwan’s outlying islands, with incidents such as intercepting a Taiwanese sight-seeing ferry in February 2024 and planning to expand customs procedures in the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese officials have warned that they would consider a blockade an act of war and respond accordingly. However, they may need to focus on strengthening their own coast guard capabilities and seeking support from Western nations through financial sanctions if Beijing imposes a quarantine.
Source: https://maritime-executive.com/editorials/china-s-opening-salvo-against-taiwan-will-likely-be-a-partial-blockade