For over a decade, China has served as the “pace-setting threat” for US defense policy and budget decisions. However, despite this prominent position, little is said about Taiwan itself and its suitability as a stage for major military operations.
The US has invested billions in defending Taiwan, but what if we were to actually invade? Researchers have identified eight significant challenges that an invader would face. Firstly, the Taiwan Strait’s surface shipping would be vulnerable to submarines, underwater mines, and long-range missiles.
Secondly, Taiwan’s extensive shoreline provides few acceptable landing options, with mountains dominating most areas. An invader would need to establish a beachhead, but all these areas present two deeply troublesome military challenges.
Thirdly, building up combat power ashore for the eventual breakout assault to capture the rest of the island is difficult due to water-intensive agricultural land. The invader wouldn’t be able to stage people and vehicles in rice paddies, making urban warfare even more challenging.
Fourth, successfully breaking out from the beachhead is also a problem, as landing into a city creates urban combat means the invader would immediately face, while landing outside of cities leads them into mired agricultural land.
Fifth, fighting across Taiwan’s landscape proves difficult. Armored vehicles can’t drive through rice paddies, and surface roads provide only one lane in each direction at best. The defenders could exploit this by dropping sections of the road to disrupt forward movement.
Sixth, natural obstacles like narrow mountain passes and deep river valleys hinder an invader’s progress towards Taipei. These challenges allow the Taiwanese to create a layered defense.
Seventh, Greater Taipei occupies a massive ancient lakebed surrounded by mountains, making it difficult for an invader to approach. The city itself is dense with little open space at street level and has significant buildings above 20 stories, making the scale of battle almost impossible to comprehend.
Lastly, an invader still faces the daunting task of capturing Taipei proper, a metropolitan area with a population over 7 million, comparable to the infamous Battle of Stalingrad.
Understanding Taiwan’s complex terrain is essential for grasping why China would prefer alternative means of gaining control over the island. The US defense establishment may need to reassess their pacing threat scenario.
Source: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/if-china-invades-taiwan