The US is approaching its fifth anniversary since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and new research suggests that millions of deaths due to the virus will lead to a significant increase in the nation’s Social Security trust fund. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found approximately 1.7 million excess deaths among Americans aged 25 and older between 2020 and 2023.
These premature deaths result in reduced payments from Social Security, estimated at around $294 billion, as the system would not make retirement payments to those individuals who passed away. However, this gain is partially offset by lost tax revenue and increased survivor benefits to spouses and children of the deceased, resulting in an estimated $205 billion less in future outlays.
The majority of excess deaths were among seniors aged 65 or older who were already drawing retirement benefits or would soon have started. Black and Hispanic populations saw higher excess deaths per capita compared to white Americans and those with lower educational attainment.
While the study suggests a modest improvement in Social Security’s financial health due to excess deaths, it is essential to note that this measure does not account for other factors such as long COVID survivors who may drop out of the workforce, leading to reduced contributions to the system.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/02/19/americans-died-covid-social-security