A summer COVID-19 wave is expected to peak in early September, according to experts. Jay Weiland, an infectious disease modeler, predicts the current surge will hit its peak around that time. Jenn Dowd, a professor of demography and population health at the University of Oxford, referenced Weiland’s prediction model in her newsletter.
While experts caution that COVID-19 is unpredictable, recent data shows a rise in infections in all but five states. However, COVID levels are currently lower than last summer, with hospitalization levels and wastewater data indicating this. Experts predict another surge as kids head back to school in September and as people return from summer vacations.
Models used to predict peaks have limitations, but still provide valuable information. Jessica Malaty Rivera, an infectious disease epidemiologist, notes that the past has shown a consistent summer wave followed by a back-to-school flu season wave. Wastewater data is only accurate up to a point, and its presence doesn’t always indicate active virus.
To protect themselves during the surge, experts recommend staying home when sick, wearing masks in crowded spaces, and washing hands frequently. Malaty Rivera emphasizes that even with vaccines, precautions are necessary, especially for high-risk groups. Dowd advises ramping up precautions like paying attention to ventilation and using HEPA filters.
While COVID-19 is a serious infection, experts stress the importance of prevention over perfection. Dowd notes that small precautions can add up to lower transmission and protect communities.
Source: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-peak-early-september-prediction_l_689f52eae4b0fd906c861815