Eli Lilly has lowered its 2024 revenue forecast by $400m, citing unexpected market dynamics in the diabetes glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) market. The revised outlook marks a 3% shortfall from the company’s October 2024 guidance.
For Q4 2024, Lilly now expects global revenue of approximately $13.5bn, a 45% increase from Q4 2023. Strong sales of incretin-based drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound drove this growth, with combined sales reaching $5.4bn in the fourth quarter alone.
However, despite these gains, Lilly’s overall revenue forecast fell short of initial projections. Shares in the company dipped by 7% following the announcement before recovering slightly to close 5% lower than the market open.
CEO Dave Ricks acknowledged the challenges in predicting growth in the rapidly expanding GLP-1RA market. He attributed the shortfall to disruptions caused by shortages of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Mounjaro and Zepbound, which drove patients to seek alternatives from compounding pharmacies.
To address this issue, Lilly plans to increase production by 60% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. The company also announced its intention to join an opposing lawsuit brought by compounding pharmacies against the FDA over its decision that Lilly’s blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer in short supply.
Lilly remains optimistic about its long-term growth, with forecasted sales between $58bn and $61bn for 2025. The company is also expanding access to obesity treatments while leveraging new therapeutic indications to ensure pricing stability across its portfolio.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jp-morgan-2025-eli-lilly-123201552.html