Avian influenza H5N1 has emerged as a significant global health threat, with its potential to cause devastating pandemics. While we cannot predict the finer details of an outbreak or storm, scientists can identify emerging threats and prepare accordingly.
Recent animal outbreaks have been particularly troubling, with nearly 50% of cases resulting in fatalities. The virus’s evolutionary changes make it more likely to transmit between humans, posing a significant risk to global health.
However, by examining the evolution of infectious diseases from a deep time perspective, researchers can identify patterns and take steps to slow down this process. H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations, presenting opportunities for intervention.
Spillover and viral chatter refer to the process by which a disease-causing pathogen evolves to infect a new species. This is a tricky enterprise, requiring precise molecular “keys” compatible with the host’s molecular “locks.” Given these challenges, it’s not surprising that pathogens often get stuck partway into the spillover process.
The current situation with H5N1 is characterized by viral chatter, where human infections occur in small, sporadic outbreaks. This pattern suggests that human-to-human transmission may likely occur at some point, but the timing and scale are unknown.
Influenza viruses evolve rapidly due to co-infection and reshuffling of genetic material among hosts. The fact that H5N1 has infected at least 450 different animal species amplifies this risk.
Fortunately, people can take basic measures to slow down the evolution of H5N1 and reduce its lethality. Improving food animal care, vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses, and addressing nutrition and sanitation issues in poorest populations can help curb the virus’s spread.
By understanding the evolutionary patterns of infectious diseases and taking proactive steps, we can reshape these trajectories for the better, ultimately mitigating the risk posed by avian influenza H5N1.
Source: https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-could-be-on-the-cusp-of-transmitting-between-humans-but-there-are-ways-to-slow-down-viral-evolution-250232