The prospect of reduced US naval support for Europe has raised concerns about the continent’s ability to deter or defeat Russia. European NATO must now weigh its options, considering whether it can rely solely on its own naval capabilities.
Historically, Russia’s geography has made it vulnerable to sea-based action. During the Crimean War, British and French expeditionary forces sealed off critical Russian ports, crippling its imports and exports. Similarly, during World War I, a blockade of Russian oil and wheat exports contributed to the collapse of Imperial Russia.
In contrast, European naval forces have modernized in recent years, with improved readiness compared to past decades. However, Russia’s navy has performed poorly in Ukraine, relying on smaller vessels that are less capable than those of Europe’s navies.
The US benefits from a Europe-only focus by European navies, as it provides an additional layer of security against Chinese threats in the Indo-Pacific region. Conversely, Russia maintains a formidable submarine arm that poses significant challenges to Europeans without US support.
Europe’s naval forces have reduced in numbers since the Cold War, but their collective mobility and strategic capabilities exceed those of Russia’s isolated fleets. New technologies, such as unmanned rotary wing vehicles, can help fill the gaps left by the shortage of high-end manned vessels.
Despite these advantages, Europe faces a critical shortcoming: nuclear submarine capacity. The Northern Fleet boasts five cruise missile and eight nuclear-attack submarines, while European nations have only 10 nuclear attack submarines in total. US nuclear submarines are essential for countering Russian threats in key regions like the Barents/Norwegian Sea.
To counter Russia’s naval capabilities, Europe must adopt a coordinated strategy that includes:
1. Blockading critical ports and trade routes to disrupt Russian imports and exports.
2. Employing sea-based operations to seal off Russian territory and deny its use of strategic maritime assets.
3. Developing and deploying advanced technologies, such as unmanned systems, to augment naval capabilities.
4. Enhancing submarine training and readiness to counter Russian nuclear-attack submarines.
5. Increasing cooperation with the US on nuclear submarine operations to address the critical shortfall.
6. Improving logistics and supply chain resilience to ensure sustained naval presence in key regions.
7. Fostering a unified European approach to maritime security, leveraging NATO’s cooperative framework.
By adopting these strategies, Europe can build resilience against Russian naval threats and strengthen its position in the region.
Source: https://cepa.org/article/can-europes-navies-deter-russia-alone