The European peace dividend, a theory suggesting that decades of peace would lead to significant economic savings, has proven costly in practice. While a reduction in military spending was expected to yield substantial benefits, the reality is more complex and nuanced. Recent data suggests that Europe’s security posture is becoming increasingly expensive.
Historically, the “peace dividend” referred to the idea that a reduction in military spending would lead to significant economic savings. However, this assumption is being challenged by recent developments in global politics. The ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, rising tensions between Russia and NATO, and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union have all contributed to an increase in security costs.
Despite initial expectations, Europe’s peace dividend has not materialized as anticipated. A 2019 study by the European Parliament found that the European Union’s military spending had actually increased by 2% since 2015, despite a decrease in the overall global conflict environment. This upward trend is attributed to various factors, including the growing security threats posed by Russia and the need for European militaries to adapt to new challenges.
Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has revealed significant costs associated with maintaining military readiness and responding to security crises. The Ukrainian government’s request for additional military aid from the West has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of Europe’s defense spending.
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/cf1638c4-45ed-4671-8c42-3136e7bda7d5