The recent collapse of Michel Barnier’s government in France and the looming crisis in German politics serve as stark warnings for the European Union. The first lesson is that the talk of massive re-arming and substituting the U.S. as the chief backer of Ukraine while maintaining existing levels of healthcare and social security is unrealistic due to a lack of funding.
The second lesson is that the effort by mainstream establishments to exclude populist parties from office will ultimately fail, leading to repeated political crises and government paralysis. The fate of France and Germany, two key EU countries, serves as a cautionary tale. Their fiscal woes, exacerbated by economic stagnation and welfare budget pressures, have contributed to the downfall of their respective governments.
This phenomenon is not unique to Europe but can be observed in the U.S., where the backlash against the Republican establishment has led to Donald Trump’s presidency. The EU’s grand coalitions of the center, such as Macron’s 2017-2022 coalition in France, have created a vacuum that populist parties are eager to fill.
The French presidential elections in June 2024 showcased this trend, with Marine Le Pen winning a plurality of votes despite being excluded from power by Emmanuel Macron. The resulting government’s instability has set the stage for early presidential elections, which could lead to a presidency of the Rassemblement National.
Germany’s situation is similar, with the Social Democratic party struggling and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) rising in popularity. The recent collapse of their coalition government highlights the risks of excluding populist parties from power. If the centrist conservative Christian Democrats fail to secure an absolute majority in February’s elections, the Greens may be forced into a grand coalition with the Social Democrats.
The EU’s foreign and security establishments seem oblivious to this trend, advocating for a European coalition force to deploy to eastern Ukraine without addressing the funding concerns. This naive approach ignores the harsh reality that the money and public support for such a program are nowhere indicated.
Source: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/france-barnier-macron