A panel of renowned economists discussed the challenges policymakers face as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House and rise in populism, potentially upending free trade and economic security.
Renowned economists gathered at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Bangkok to discuss the implications of a Trump presidency on global economies. While acknowledging that globalization has been beneficial for many countries, panelists warned about the risks of rising populism and protectionism under Trump’s leadership.
Randall Kroszner, professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, stated, “I don’t think people believe that free trade is as great as everyone thought it was. There’s a perception that we can no longer work together to make the pie grow.”
Nouriel Roubini, professor emeritus at New York University and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, concurred, noting that while globalization has brought benefits, it also created winners and losers. He warned about the dangers of protectionism, tariffs, and reshoring, which could lead to significant economic risks.
However, Muhamad Chatib Basri, former finance minister of Indonesia and chairman of Bank Mandiri, suggested that protectionist policies could create investment opportunities in Southeast Asia as China relocates manufacturing to avoid higher tariffs.
Roubini expressed concerns about the impact of Trump’s proposed policies on trade with Southeast Asia, particularly in countries like Singapore and Vietnam. He argued that the president-elect’s proposals would lead to a stronger dollar and undermine his goal of maintaining the US dollar as the global currency.
Despite the risks, Kroszner believed that Trump is serious about negotiations and may implement tariffs in a way that allows for exceptions. Basri noted that while technology presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for countries to adapt and customize their trade strategies.
The panelists agreed that policymakers must change their approach to address the impact of shorter product cycles and digital technology on laws and regulations. They emphasized the need for governments to adopt a more agile mindset and prioritize principles over rules.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ardianwibisono/2024/11/25/forbes-global-ceo-conference-2024-economists-predict-that-globalization-is-on-its-way-out-but-its-not-all-gloom-and-doom