A new analysis published in The Lancet suggests that the death toll from the Gaza conflict may have been underestimated by more than 40%. Researchers used a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis to estimate casualties and found that over 64,000 Palestinians may have been killed by traumatic injury during the first nine months of the war.
The study analyzed three lists: hospital morgues, family reports, and obituaries on social media. The results show that 59% of the dead were women, children, and people over 65. However, the researchers acknowledge that some deaths may have been missed, particularly those who died in building collapses or when taken as prisoners by Israel.
The estimated death toll includes a wide range of possible values, with a confidence interval between 55,298 and 78,525. If extrapolated to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure for the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.
Experts say that this new analysis provides important evidence for understanding the scope of the conflict’s impact on civilians. While the original death toll was likely an underestimate, the study highlights the challenges of counting casualties in a region with limited access to healthcare and a destroyed health system.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/14/health/gaza-death-toll.html