Germany is set to vote on a historic increase in defence spending, which could have far-reaching implications for Europe’s defence and its support for Ukraine. The Bundestag’s decision will determine whether Germany, the largest defence spender in Europe, can meet the growing threat from Russia.
A 23.2% rise in defence spending last year contributed to a record 11.7% increase in European defence outlay. Germany’s Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz is pushing for more spending, but not everyone is in favour of it, particularly the far-right AfD and left-wing Linke parties.
Europe’s security is being challenged by the US no longer having its back. The Trump administration’s announcements at the Munich Security Conference have raised concerns about America’s commitment to Europe’s defence. Defence strategists are planning for a semi-victorious Russia making gains in Ukraine, threatening Nato’s eastern members within three years.
The European Commission has proposed an €800bn defence fund called ReArm Europe Fund, but Germany’s proposal could be a game-changer if it passes. The plan would remove restrictions on borrowing for defence spending, potentially freeing up unlimited billions of euros.
Many sought-after weapons in Ukraine’s armoury have come from the US, and cutting intelligence aid could cripple Ukrainian forces. The disparity between Russia’s nuclear arsenal and that of Western nations is significant, but conventional arms may not be enough to deter Russia.
The challenge for Europe is cultural reform, with leaders needing to navigate a rapidly deteriorating security environment. A historic increase in defence spending is necessary, but it must be accompanied by strong leadership and strategic thinking.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg102564g2o