Astronomers have increased the chances of a direct hit from asteroid 2024 YR, which is currently on track to pass close to Earth in 2032. The odds of impact are now estimated at 2.3%, or one-in-43, according to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
Despite this revised risk assessment, astronomers are urging calmness, pointing out that such changes in probability are common due to fluctuations in the object’s speed and trajectory. The European Space Agency notes that once updated data is received, the likelihood of a strike will drop to virtually zero.
Experts like Colin Snodgrass from the University of Edinburgh believe that 2024 YR will likely pass by harmlessly but requires more attention from telescopes until its orbit is confirmed. This approach allows for improved future predictions of its trajectory.
Past examples, such as asteroid 99942 Apophis, demonstrate that asteroids can be downgraded to no threat once their orbits are accurately predicted. NASA’s successful Dart mission in 2022 has also shown the potential for deflecting large asteroids and altering their trajectories.
While the odds of a high-impact event may rise, experts remain optimistic due to advances in asteroid detection and deflection technologies.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances