Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for stock returns in 2025, now predicting a loss for the S&P 500. Chief US equity strategist David Kostin lowered the firm’s year-end target to 5,700 from 6,200, a decline of 2.1% compared to Friday’s close and below the index’s starting point. This forecast is among the lowest among major Wall Street firms, according to a CNBC survey.
Kostin cited downward revisions to earnings growth and valuations due to weaker economic growth, increased uncertainty, and higher recession risk as the reasons for the change. The updated forecast comes after Goldman reduced its original 2025 year-end target of 6,500 just over a month ago.
The S&P 500 has struggled in 2025 so far, with a current year-to-date decline of about 5%. The market’s downturn is partly attributed to trades linked to the artificial intelligence boom losing steam and concerns about tariffs affecting sectors like automakers.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/goldman-slashes-sp-500-2025-forecast-for-second-time-this-month-to-lowest-on-street.html