Iran’s government is facing increasing pressure from sustained Israeli strikes on its military and nuclear infrastructure, prompting experts to question the future of the Islamic Republic. Debate over what could come next is intensifying, with some warning that the regime’s collapse may lead to a freer Iran or plunge it into instability.
Reza Pahlavi, exiled crown prince of Iran, has stated that sources within the country indicate the regime’s command structure is collapsing rapidly. However, experts caution that a transition could take time and requires careful planning.
Iranian opposition leader Behnam Taleblu warns that both sides are unprepared for regime change due to reluctance to engage with the idea. “We are most unprepared” if not able to articulate a necessary political strategy, he says.
Four scenarios emerge from the current situation: collapse from within, popular uprising, return of exiled leaders, or the regime surviving in an even more repressive form. Some experts believe a quiet historical event could unfold if insiders organize a rebellion from within the system.
However, Taleblu notes that Iran has spent decades “coup-proofing” and making decisions based on zeal rather than capability. The risk of a classic military coup is low, but significant politicking and maneuvering would be required.
The second scenario involves a popular uprising sparked by the release of political prisoners, which could rally public support. Taleblu states that Iranian society has already undergone significant shifts over the past decade, with large swaths of the population opposing the regime.
A third possibility is the return of exiled leaders, who might play a symbolic role in rallying support for a revolution. However, figures like Reza Pahlavi should not be seen as rulers but rather as bridgeheads into a new Iran.
The most dire scenario is that the regime survives, leading to an even more repressive future with greater military control and less clergy influence.
The non-Persian communities, including Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds, face uncertain treatment in any post-regime scenario. Experts emphasize the need for trust-building between these communities and the Persian opposition if regime change is to succeed.
Source: https://www.foxnews.com/world/heres-what-post-ayatollah-iran-could-look-like-war-israel-leads-regimes-fall