The fall of the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East, and Iran is now desperately searching for a new proxy to threaten US interests in the region. Russia’s withdrawal from its military bases in Syria has also left Iran without a significant presence in the country.
Iran’s loss is significant, as Syria provided a sanctuary for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to fund, supply, and train proxies in Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah groups. However, the IRGC’s safe haven in Damascus no longer exists.
With its influence dwindling, Iran is accelerating its pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The US has been trying to restrain Israel from striking Iranian nuclear facilities, but Israel has destroyed an active nuclear research facility in Parchin, Iran, significantly damaging Tehran’s efforts.
Iran also faces the threat of January 20 when President-elect Donald Trump takes office and is expected to be a strong supporter of Israel. Additionally, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iran’s last remaining proxy, recently launched a Palestine 2 hypersonic missile towards Israel, prompting a response from Jerusalem.
In an attempt to fill the void left by Syria, Iran may have found a new proxy in al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based terrorist group affiliated with al-Qaeda. Despite their ideological differences as Shiism and Sunni Islam, both groups share a common enemy – the US and Israel. The use of weapons provided to al-Shabaab poses a threat not only to the Somali government but also to US forces and commercial shipping in the region.
The Somali government is at risk, along with 480 US soldiers stationed there, and the 4,000 assigned to the Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa Headquarters in Djibouti. The incoming Trump administration must remain vigilant against Iran’s machinations in the Horn of Africa.
Source: https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5032702-assad-regime-fall-middle-east