The Trump administration is entering nuclear talks with Iran, but many officials may underestimate the country’s resolve to preserve its expanding nuclear infrastructure. Iranian hardliners believe they have figured out Trump’s strategy and are now discussing the utility of having atomic arms sooner rather than later.
In reality, Iran has entered talks not due to external pressure but in order to preserve its nuclear program. The clerical regime is confident it can achieve its goals if the talks proceed. Iran might agree to dilute its stock of near-weapons-grade uranium or cap enrichment at a lower level, but only if it protects its new generation of centrifuges.
These advanced centrifuges are more efficient and can enrich uranium to bomb-grade in smaller facilities that are harder to detect. A stringent inspection regime without a well-placed human-intelligence network would struggle to locate these centrifuges. The Israeli intelligence network inside Iran is considered far more effective than anything the US has developed.
Arms control negotiations between physicists and politicians are inherently complex and prone to delays and redlines. These talks serve as a shield for Iran’s nuclear program, allowing it to avoid audacious attacks from Israel.
The Trump administration may be underestimating Tehran’s resolve due to its understanding of American behavior. However, the US should also be aware that Iranian hardliners have developed a strategy to counter Trump’s tactics.
Source: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/19/iran-nuclear-talks-trump-00299466