The US military’s bombing campaign against Iran has yielded over 7,800 targets hit, but Iran remains largely intact, with continued retaliation and resistance. The pattern of unrealized expectations for American interventions in the region is reminiscent of previous conflicts, including the wars in Lebanon and Iraq.
Global oil prices have increased as Iranian attacks on exports through the Strait of Hormuz continue, while nightly barrages of missiles hit Israel and Persian Gulf nations allied with the US. Over 2,300 people have been killed in the conflict.
Iran’s new leaders have defied American expectations, opting for asymmetric warfare tactics to extend the war indefinitely. The country relies on smaller craft to lay mines and deploy speedboats for lightning attacks, while dispersing its forces to avoid being vanquished in one fell swoop.
Analysts warn that the US has a tendency to overestimate what can be achieved through overwhelming military power, underestimating the fallout. The regime’s survival is at stake, making it fight for its very existence.
Despite the US claims of Iran’s air force being extinct and navy destroyed, analysts note that Iran was never expected to take on the US in a direct confrontation using conventional military means. Instead, they rely on extending the war until the cost saps the will of the Trump administration and Israel.
The conflict has shown that previous predictions about reshaping the Middle East have been proven wrong, with wars instead taking violent detours. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 produced unforeseen consequences, including the rise of the Islamic State.
In conclusion, Iran’s unmet expectations fit a familiar pattern in the region, highlighting the limitations of American military power and the complexity of regional conflicts.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/us/israel-us-iran-strategy-war.html