A cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah group went into effect last Wednesday, but multiple claims of violations have already surfaced. Despite the incidents, analysts say that the deal’s collapse is unlikely and that both sides may exercise restraint during the initial 60-day phase.
“I’ve been around Lebanon cease-fire agreements for decades, and there was no cease-fire agreement that wasn’t initially broken,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. The real question lies in whether the parties have the will to absorb violations and maintain restraint while navigating this critical period.
Both Israel and Hezbollah claim to be victims of cease-fire breaches, with each side accusing the other of aggressive actions. Israeli airstrikes killed at least 11 people, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, while Hezbollah fired a warning strike into Israel-controlled Shebaa Farms territory in response to previous Israeli strikes.
Under the deal brokered by the US and France, Israel is set to withdraw its military from Lebanon within 60 days, with Hezbollah supposed to pull out north of the Litani River. The Lebanese Army will oversee and enforce security in this zone.
Analysts believe that the fragile truce could still endure, as both sides have incentives to maintain the peace. “If you can get through 60 days without a collapse of the agreement, then you will have a strategic pause,” said Miller.
However, enforcing international agreements remains challenging, particularly given the hazy details and mechanisms in place. The US, France, and UN are supposed to assess violations, but it is unclear whether these mechanisms are fully operational or how they work.
Despite uncertainties, experts caution against being overly swayed by daily headlines about breaches. “Commitments will be measured over a two-month period,” advised Miller.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-cease-fire-violations.html