A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is holding up for over a month, despite numerous accusations of violations from both sides. The deal struck to end the war in November required Hezbollah to lay down its arms and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces and hand over control to the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers.
Israel has withdrawn from only two towns in southern Lebanon, but continues to strike what it says are Hezbollah bases. Hezbollah has threatened to resume fighting if Israel doesn’t fully withdraw its forces by the deadline. Despite this, analysts say the truce is likely to hold due to its flexible terms, which may give it a better chance of withstanding changing circumstances.
The ceasefire agreement calls for both sides to halt “offensive” military actions, but allows for self-defense. The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing attacks into Israel and dismantling Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon. The U.S., France, Israel, Lebanon, and the U.N. peacekeeping force are responsible for overseeing implementation.
Hezbollah has largely halted its rocket fire into Israel, while Israel has stopped attacking it in most areas of Lebanon. However, Israel continues to launch airstrikes on militant sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The International Organization for Migration reports that around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced, with thousands waiting to return home.
Analysts say the power imbalance between Israel and Hezbollah makes it likely that Israel will want to maintain freedom of action after the 60-day period. Hezbollah, in its weakened position, has a strong interest in ensuring the deal doesn’t fall apart despite Israeli violations. The group may resort to guerrilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon.
The future of the ceasefire hangs in the balance as it approaches its deadline. With both sides accusing each other of violating the agreement, it remains to be seen whether the fragile truce will hold or collapse under pressure.
Source: https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-ceasefire-7d8e3ecced6305ef0ec922d04d571fb4