Just over a week ago, Donald Trump seemed like a safe bet to win the election, but that’s no longer the case. According to prediction markets, Kamala Harris is now leading with a contract price of 54 cents on Sunday, up from 42 cents just a week ago.
Trump’s winning contract is priced at 51 cents, down from 60 cents last Tuesday. His odds of winning have also fallen sharply, dropping from 64.6% to 54%. Meanwhile, Harris’ odds have jumped, reaching as high as 54% on Sunday, up from 35.4% just a week ago.
The surge in Harris’ odds can be attributed to several recent polling data points, including a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that showed her leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states showed that the race is still close but with last-minute deciders breaking toward Harris.
Experts attribute the sudden shift in odds to news events, such as comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s comment about Puerto Rico during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden. Meanwhile, Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, believes that a turning point came when Harris’ prospects began to improve after several positive polling data points.
Despite the recent twists, prediction markets still favor Trump winning the election with a 53-in-100 chance compared to Harris’ 47 out of 100. However, José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, notes that a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives is still narrowly favored in the IBKR forecasting model.
Source: https://fortune.com/2024/11/03/who-will-win-the-election-prediction-markets-donald-trump-collapse-kamala-harris