The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has declared the end of La Niña, putting Arizona in a neutral state of ENSO conditions. This means we can’t draw direct conclusions about the monsoon season from the state of El Niño or La Niña.
Despite the neutral conditions, forecasts suggest there’s almost a 60% chance of above-normal precipitation during the summer months (July-September). However, the link between ENSO and summertime rainfall in Arizona is weak. Instead, recent years with “neutral” monsoons have shown varying results, including both near-normal and below-average precipitation.
Last year’s neutral monsoon season was particularly dry, resulting in only 0.74 inches of precipitation in Phoenix. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting above-normal precipitation for this summer, citing other atmospheric factors such as a warm and dry land surface that may fuel heat and precipitation.
While long-term forecasts are uncertain, recent data suggests that Arizona can expect above-average monsoon rainfall this year.
Source: https://www.azfamily.com/2025/04/11/la-nia-is-done-what-does-that-mean-arizona-monsoon-season