The US labor market will receive another snapshot of its health on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its February nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 ET. Economists expect growth of 170,000 jobs, a moderate increase from January’s 143,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remains steady at 4%.
While this data points to a stable labor market, several caveats suggest more challenging times ahead. Outplacement firm Challenger reported a surge in layoff announcements in February, with over 62,000 government contractor cuts attributed to Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.
Meanwhile, consumer confidence has taken a sharp drop, with respondents expressing concerns about inflation and job availability. This sentiment shift may not be reflected in the jobs number due to timing and methodology differences. However, economists warn that this decreased confidence can have far-reaching effects on the economy and hiring trends.
Goldman Sachs expects the layoff numbers to impact the headline payrolls figure by only 10,000, but alternative indicators suggest a more nuanced picture. The bank forecasts a firm pace of job creation with moderating contributions from catch-up hiring and immigration.
Additionally, the Bureau will release figures on pay growth, with average hourly earnings expected to show a 0.3% monthly gain, up 4.2% from last year.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/the-pivotal-february-jobs-report-is-out-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html