A massive volcanic eruption like Mount Tambora in 1815 could have devastating effects on the world, as scientists warn that another event may be imminent. With global temperatures warming due to climate change, an eruption could cause more significant cooling impacts.
The planet’s most recent massive eruption occurred over 200 years ago and sent a massive plume of particles high into the atmosphere, leading to widespread famine, disease, and disaster. Scientists estimate a 1-in-6 chance of another massive eruption this century, but the timing is impossible to predict.
Volcanoes shape our world by creating continents, building the atmosphere, and changing climate. When they erupt, they eject lava, ash, and gases that can impact global temperatures. Sulfur dioxide, in particular, plays a crucial role in cooling the planet, forming tiny aerosol particles that scatter sunlight and reflect it back into space.
While scientists cannot predict with certainty when or where the next massive eruption will occur, understanding past events is vital. Data from ice cores and tree rings provides evidence of massive eruptions cooling the planet by 1-1.5 degrees Celsius in the past. This could have significant impacts on global food security, economic stability, and human health.
A warmer world makes future eruptions more complex, with increased dispersion of aerosol particles due to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The impact would be even greater, as smaller aerosols can scatter sunlight more efficiently than larger ones.
The immediate effects of an eruption would be catastrophic, including widespread destruction and loss of life. Longer-term impacts could include crop failures, shifting rainfall patterns, and disruptions to global food systems.
While a period of cooling might seem positive, scientists emphasize that this is not the case. The impacts would be far-reaching and devastating, with potential economic losses exceeding $3.6 trillion in the first year alone. Massif volcanic eruptions cannot be prevented, but experts call for preparations, including evacuations, aid efforts, and securing food supplies.
The probability of a massive eruption may seem small, but it is not nothing. The world is unprepared for the impacts an event would unleash, and scientists stress that we are just beginning to grasp the potential consequences.
Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/24/climate/massive-volcano-eruption-climate/index.html