A recent study has warned that the US is on the brink of a measles disaster, with over 50 million cases predicted if vaccination rates drop by half. Researchers modeled how the disease might spread in the coming decades and found that even a 10% decline in vaccination rates could lead to 11.1 million cases. If vaccination rates remain steady, there could be 851,300 cases of measles in the next 25 years.
Measles was eliminated in the US in 2000, but experts fear that if vaccination rates continue to fall, the disease could become endemic again. The study’s lead author, Mathew Kiang, stated, “We’re already on the precipice of disaster… Anything above zero is tragic.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that one dose of a measles vaccine is 93% effective, while two doses are 97% effective. However, vaccination rates have been declining, with kindergartners receiving only 92.7% of the recommended doses in recent years.
Experts warn that a decline in MMR vaccination rates could lead to not only increased measles cases but also other preventable illnesses like rubella and polio. The study predicts that if all routine vaccinations were to fall, there would be 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths over the next 25 years.
The anti-vaccine movement has been fueled by misinformation and unfounded claims linking vaccines to autism. Experts stress the importance of vaccination in preventing diseases like measles, which can have long-term health consequences for children.
Source: https://www.livescience.com/health/viruses-infections-disease/were-already-on-the-precipice-of-disaster-deadly-measles-outbreaks-could-explode-across-the-us-in-the-next-25-years-if-vaccinations-fall-model-predicts