Mexico is looking to an early review of the USMCA trade agreement, set for 2026, as a way to gain clarity and ease uncertainty that has led to falling investment and slowing growth.
The review’s “formal start” could begin as soon as September, according to Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The move comes after US President Donald Trump expressed interest in an earlier review, which gives the US leverage in negotiations with Mexico.
Mexico’s reliance on the US is a significant factor in its decision to seek clarity on the trade agreement. Over 80% of total Mexican goods exports go to the US, making it almost existential for the country’s economy.
The uncertainty has already impacted Mexico’s economy, with foreign direct investment falling 21% compared to last year, according to figures from Mexico’s Central Bank. The country’s GDP forecast has also been slashed to just 0.1% growth in 2025, highlighting the need for more certainty around its trade relationship with the US.
Mexican officials have been engaged in frequent shuttle diplomacy between Mexico and Washington, meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, Trump’s top trade official, in an effort to gain clarity on the future of the USMCA. However, negotiations with the Trump administration can be unreliable, as seen in a recent incident where the US abruptly shut its border to livestock despite agreeing to do so.
The review of the USMCA has become crucial for Mexico’s economy, and officials are hopeful that it will bring more stability and certainty to their trade relationship with the US.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-hopes-early-review-usmca-can-end-uncertainty-revive-flagging-investment-2025-05-30