Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has issued another warning that the US economy is on the brink of recession. While the current jobs data doesn’t signal a recession, more than half of US industries are already shedding workers. This has led some experts to question whether future revisions to jobs data will show employment already falling.
Zandi points out that the start of a recession can be unclear until after the fact, and that the National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of when one begins and ends. According to the NBER, a recession involves “a significant decline in economic activity” that lasts more than a few months.
The latest payroll employment data shows job growth slowing, with only 73,000 new jobs created last month, below forecasts. May’s numbers were also revised down, and June’s total was slashed. This has led Zandi to suggest that subsequent revisions could show employment already declining.
In fact, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs in July, which is more than half the number in previous recession periods. While some experts point to weak labor demand, others blame a shortage of workers due to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker still points to continued growth, but the third-quarter forecast has edged up slightly from last week. The unemployment rate remains low, bouncing between 4% and 4.2%. However, Zandi notes that this rate may not be a reliable barometer of recession due to the recent decrease in foreign-born workers.
Overall, while the job market is showing signs of slowing down, Moody’s chief economist remains cautious about the possibility of a recession. He warns that business demand for labor has cooled, and that future revisions to jobs data could show employment already declining.
Source: https://fortune.com/2025/08/10/recession-warning-economic-outlook-industry-job-losses-employment-declines