Gordon Moore’s famous prediction about the exponential growth of transistors on microchips has largely held true since 1965. Now, a similar trend is emerging in the development of gravitational-wave antennas, which detect distant black holes. The rate of detected collisions has been doubling approximately every two years, starting with the first discovery in 2015 and projecting out to around 2040.
The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and its planned upgrade, Cosmic Explorer, have demonstrated remarkable exponential growth in detecting black hole collisions. This trend is not unique to microchips; it seems that Moore’s law applies to various technological innovations.
Improving and operating black hole detectors requires continuous investment, which has been fulfilled over the past quarter-century without a substantial increase in annual cost. As a result, detection is becoming vastly cheaper. For instance, finding a black hole collision should cost less than $2,000 by around 2035, compared to approximately $2 million in 2015.
The rapid advancement of black hole detections has the potential to transform our understanding of the universe. Breakthrough insights on gravity, star lives and deaths, or the ultimate fate of the cosmos could be revealed through this new window onto the universe.
In conclusion, the exponential growth of technological advancements in microchips and black hole detectors may hint at more general technology trends and human progress. As we continue to explore and innovate, it is crucial to set expectations for the future state of technology to drive planning and preparation for the brave new future ahead.
Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/black-hole-detectors-fulfill-moores-law/