Elon Musk claims Tesla’s Robotaxi service will launch in California within the next two months, pending regulatory approval. However, most people appear to doubt his assertion, with only Tesla shareholders seeming to believe him.
Tesla has been shifting its self-driving goals over the years, moving from unsupervised autonomous driving in consumer vehicles since 2016 to a Robotaxi service in a geo-fenced area operated by an internal fleet and currently with in-car supervisors. Despite this, Musk says he’s confident Tesla can scale faster than Waymo.
Musk announced plans to expand Robotaxi to Austin and bring it to the Bay Area “a month or two” after obtaining regulatory approvals. However, Tesla’s odds on Polymarket’s prediction market have dropped to 18.5% following Musk’s comments. The odds reflect skepticism about Musk’s claims.
California’s Department of Motor Vehicles has confirmed that Tesla hasn’t applied for necessary permits to launch self-driving vehicles in the state. This raises questions about whether regulatory approval is indeed the main hurdle.
Many experts and commenters are skeptical about Musk’s timeline, citing California’s strict requirements for autonomous ride-hailing services. Top commenter Scott Nealey stated that there’s “zero chance” of Tesla launching Robotaxi without a safety driver behind the wheel in California.
The situation highlights concerns about Elon Musk’s leadership style and transparency regarding his company’s goals and timelines. With a favorability rating of just 21%, Musk has lost the trust of many, leading to widespread skepticism about his claims.
Source: https://electrek.co/2025/07/11/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-is-coming-to-california-but-no-one-other-than-shareholders-beleive-him