Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially estimated to be 130-300 feet wide, had sparked concerns about its potential impact on Earth in December 2032. However, after continued observations through early 2025, NASA has confirmed that the asteroid poses no significant impact risk to our planet.
According to NASA experts, 2024 YR4’s size and orbit make an airburst a likely scenario. If it were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, the damage would be minimal, potentially shattering windows or causing minor structural damage across a city. However, if it entered the atmosphere over a populated region, the damage could be more severe, potentially collapsing residential structures and shattering windows across larger regions.
NASA determines impact probabilities by funding observatories to search for undiscovered asteroids and track existing ones. They use observation data to calculate and refine near-Earth object orbits using computer models. As new tracking data becomes available, results are posted on the Sentry risk list page, providing updates on asteroid trajectories and potential impacts.
The possibility of deflecting 2024 YR4 is also being explored. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is one technique that could be used to address potentially hazardous asteroids. However, deflection would depend on the asteroid’s size, physical properties, orbit, and discovery warning time. Since 2024 YR4 poses no significant impact risk, it is premature to speculate on potential deflection techniques for this asteroid.
Source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/asteroid-2024-yr4-going-to-impact-earth-and-how-much-damage-could-it-cause-nasa-has-the-answer/articleshow/118682623.cms?from=mdr