NASA has increased the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon to nearly a one-in-25 chance, according to new observations. The space rock was initially deemed a potential threat to Earth but its chance of impact on our home planet was reduced to 0.004 percent following further analysis.
The updated estimate suggests that there is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. If it were to impact, it would not significantly alter the Moon’s orbit.
NASA used the James Webb Space Telescope to study 2024 YR4 and discovered its unusual thermal properties. The team found that the asteroid’s spin rate and surface composition are distinct from larger asteroids, suggesting a possible explanation for its unique characteristics.
The estimated size of 2024 YR4 is around 60 meters (200 feet), and if it were to hit the Moon, it would create a small crater similar in scale to the South Pole-Aitken basin. However, with humans potentially present on the Moon in the near future, even this impact would pose an extremely low risk to human safety.
Source: https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/05/nasa_moon_asteroid