Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered on December 27, 2024, has a 2.1% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. The odds are still favorable, but additional observations are crucial to refine the estimates.
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) detected the asteroid, initially setting its impact probability at 1.3%. Further observation increased the chances to 2.3%, before dropping to 2.1% this morning. More data is needed to confirm these odds.
Astronomers estimate the asteroid’s size to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. Its potential impact would release about 8 megatons of energy, comparable to the Tunguska blast of 1908. Since it doesn’t meet NASA’s criteria for a potentially hazardous asteroid, Webb space telescope is being used to gather more data.
The asteroid currently ranks as a “3” on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating “Meriting Attention by Astronomers.” However, new observations may change its classification once more data becomes available.
Source: https://gizmodo.com/nasa-calls-in-webb-telescope-to-track-recently-identified-hazardous-asteroid-2000562215