President Trump’s pledge to land astronauts on Mars may have been overly optimistic. According to orbital dynamics, the earliest possible mission would not occur until 2029, even if that were a realistic goal.
The distance between Earth and Mars varies greatly due to their elliptical orbits around the sun, ranging from 35 million miles to 250 million miles. To conserve fuel, spacecraft must wait for Mars to be properly aligned before launching, which can take seven or more months.
Mars and Earth align every 26 months, presenting a challenge to President Trump’s plan. There are only two potential launch windows during his presidency: late 2026 and late 2028. SpaceX’s Starship is the most promising vehicle for an uncrewed mission to Mars in 2026, but even if successful, astronauts may not depart until late 2028.
While Starship has shown promise through test flights, it still needs to carry astronauts, land on another world, and safely return from Mars. Humanity has yet to attempt sending astronauts to another planet due to the complexities of long-duration space travel, including life support, space suits, medical care, psychological well-being, food, and hygiene.
A report by the National Academy of Medicine notes that humans are the most complex component in designing long-duration missions to space. Sending astronauts to Mars will require significant advancements in these areas to ensure their health and happiness during a two-year isolation period without real-time communication with Earth.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/30/science/mars-landing-trump.html