A recent calculation has slightly increased the chances that a space rock, asteroid 2024 YR4, could hit Earth within less than a decade. According to NASA scientists, the asteroid now has a 1-in-43 chance of striking our planet, up from a 1-in-83 chance last week.
However, experts downplay the risk, stating that there’s still a 97.7% chance the asteroid will miss us entirely. The Torino Scale, used to assess near-Earth object dangers, ranks 2024 YR4 as a three, indicating concern for astronomers but not the general public.
“Humans should not be alarmed about this,” said Via Macarena Garcia Marin, a James Webb Space Telescope project scientist. “As we learn more about 2024 YR4, the odds of an impact are likely to drop.”
The asteroid’s size is still unknown, and scientists plan to collect more data using the James Webb Space Telescope. Even if it does hit Earth, experts caution that it’s unlikely to cause significant damage.
“If it’s going to miss us, it’s going to be deemed a ‘potential threat’ until we measure it well enough,” said Ethan Siegel, a theoretical astrophysicist. “The probability of impact is less than 1%, and with better data, we can accurately determine its trajectory.”
NASA has plans in place for addressing the asteroid, including the use of nuclear weapons or other deflection methods. The asteroid will remain on NASA’s risk list until at least 2028.
Source: https://www.salon.com/2025/02/08/the-odds-of-an-asteroid-hitting-earth-in-2032-just-went-slightly-up