Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of striking Earth in December 2032, with astronomers predicting a 2.3% probability of impact on December 22nd. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and NASA are working together to gather crucial data on the asteroid’s size and trajectory.
The James Webb Space Telescope will play a key role in this effort, using its MIRI instrument to make precise observations of the asteroid between March and May. These observations will help scientists determine the asteroid’s diameter, density, and composition, which is essential for predicting potential damage if it does strike Earth.
According to calculations, 2024 YR4 has a trajectory that could potentially impact eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. The asteroid’s size is estimated to be between 130-300 feet (40-90 meters) in diameter, but this figure may change with new data.
The European Space Agency notes that the James Webb Space Telescope will extend the observation arc of 2024 YR4 by a month or beyond, allowing scientists to work out its trajectory more precisely. This is crucial, as the asteroid’s movement away from Earth and changing brightness make it challenging to detect and track.
Astronomers warn that if 2024 YR4 strikes Earth, the impact will be significant, but the precise location of the impact zone is currently unknown due to uncertainties about its size and composition. The observation window for 2024 YR4 is rapidly closing, with the asteroid expected to be too faint to detect by March.
The James Webb Space Telescope’s observations will provide much-needed data on 2024 YR4, helping scientists to better understand the asteroid’s trajectory and potential impact.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2025/02/14/nasas-webb-telescope-to-study-asteroid-2024-yr4-as-impact-risk-rises