NASA has increased the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, or a 1-in-32 chance, its highest odds yet. The upgrade comes as astronomers have gathered more data on the asteroid’s precise orbit, allowing for greater precision in predicting its trajectory.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide and has the potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatonnes of TNT if it hits Earth. Since its initial detection, the odds of collision have been steadily increasing from a 1-in-83 chance to 1-in-32.
However, experts caution that these increased odds do not necessarily mean the asteroid is more likely to hit Earth and that the risk may yet come down. University of Southampton astronomer Hugh Lewis notes that observations made between now and April when the asteroid will fly behind the sun will be crucial in refining predictions.
Once the asteroid disappears from view, astronomers may comb through past data for previously overlooked observations to refine its trajectory. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to gather crucial information on the asteroid’s size and composition, which will help determine its potential impact and whether it could make it through Earth’s atmosphere intact.
Understanding the asteroid’s composition, particularly whether it is stony or iron-rich, is critical in assessing its risk. An iron-rich asteroid would be more destructive, while a stony one might break up during impact. With time running out to forecast the asteroid’s risk, NASA and space agencies are racing against the clock to gather as much data as possible before the asteroid becomes invisible from Earth-based telescopes in April 2024.
Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2468890-odds-of-asteroid-2024-yr4-hitting-earth-in-2032-have-reached-new-high