The 2025 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is the longest Cup Series points-paying race of the season, with drivers set to contest 400 laps. This marks the third-straight 1.5-mile oval that the series has run on, providing relevant data from previous races.
Kyle Larson leads the betting card as the favorite and model’s pick for the win. His dominant performance at Kansas Speedway, where he won both stages and the race, has boosted his standing in driving metrics. Larson ranked well in practice and secured a second-place qualifying effort, making him a strong contender for another dominating performance. The model gives him an 18.8% chance to win.
William Byron is in a good position as Larson’s teammate, starting one row behind him after qualifying third. If Larson isn’t the dominant car, my model thinks Byron has the next best chance to win. He currently has a 15.0% chance to win and +700 odds at ESPN BET, which can also be found at BetMGM.
Alex Bowman is the dark horse candidate with high model backing. Starting ninth, Bowman has shown speed on 1.5-mile tracks, including top-five finishes in Las Vegas and Kansas. My model gives him a 31.1% chance to finish top five. The recommended bets include Bowman’s finishing position ladder, which includes taking his top 10 at -120, top three at +600, and outright win at +2100.
Note: Betting odds may vary depending on the source.
Source: https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2025/05/25/the-action-network-nascar-odds-picks-predictions-for-coca-cola-600