As an economic forecaster and a business leader myself, I understand the monumental challenges posed by President Trump’s tariffs, immigration policy, and regulatory actions. The risk of recession has risen significantly, according to the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists, and it is impossible to forecast how the economy will evolve in the future.
Business leaders cannot afford to remain indecisive or wait for certainty. Instead, they must make informed decisions, even if that means not making any changes. To support business goals amidst uncertainty, I recommend reviewing existing business objectives, assessing specific risks, evaluating business vulnerability to recession, and developing contingency plans for both downside and upside scenarios.
When assessing specific business risks, it is essential to consider direct effects of tariffs, heightened immigration enforcement, and regulatory changes. By analyzing potential scenarios, such as return to 2024 tariffs or a ten percent average tariff, businesses can better prepare for the future. It is also crucial to evaluate their financial condition and identify areas with limited exposure to recession.
Developing contingency plans is vital in bringing clarity to uncertainty. A simple one-page plan can be more effective than a comprehensive binder, as it will be executed more rapidly and be less influenced by emotional decision-making. By having a clear plan in place, business leaders can take prompt action when necessary, increasing their chances of survival.
Moreover, developing upside contingency plans ensures that businesses are prepared to capitalize on positive outcomes, such as growing markets or declining costs. By identifying potential paths for success and taking proactive steps, companies can position themselves for long-term growth.
In conclusion, economic uncertainty demands attention from business leaders. By implementing clear strategies, assessing specific risks, and developing contingency plans, they can navigate the challenges posed by current events and position their businesses for success.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2025/04/15/tariffs-and-other-chaos-business-decisions-with-economic-uncertainty