The preseason is over, and the 53-man roster deadline is looming. As we enter the final stretch of preparation before the start of the regular season, it’s time to focus on projections. In this article, I’ll share my model’s projected league leaders in each major individual statistic, based on 272,000 simulations for each of the 272 regular-season games.
Passing Yards: The projected leader is Josh Burrow with 4,854 yards, which could surpass last season’s total of 4,918. Other notable projects include Trevor Lawrence (3,750 yards) and Baker Mayfield (4,651 yards).
Passing Touchdowns: Josh Burrow is expected to lead the league again, followed closely by Lamar Jackson (39 touchdowns). Patrick Mahomes is projected for 36 touchdowns, while Jalen Hurts is forecasted for 36 as well.
Rushing Yards: Saquon Barkley is poised to top the list with 1,548 yards, but his usage may decrease. Derrick Henry follows closely, and Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to produce interesting numbers due to Penix Jr.’s solidified role as quarterback.
Rushing Touchdowns: Brock Bowers is projected for 14 touchdowns, despite being a rookie. Patrick Mahomes (11) and Mike Evans (11) follow closely in the top five.
Receptions: Ja’Marr Chase is expected to dominate with 128 receptions, while Justin Jefferson follows closely at 109.4. CeeDee Lamb is projected for 109 receptions.
Receiving Yards: Brock Bowers is poised to produce an impressive season with 1,722 yards. Tee Higgins (1,148 yards) and Nico Collins (1,334 yards) also have notable projections.
Receiving Touchdowns: Ja’Marr Chase is expected to lead the league with 14 touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs follows closely at 14. Saquon Barkley (13.3) and Jonathan Taylor (13.2) are also projected for high touchdown totals.
Total Touches: Bijan Robinson is expected to receive a lot of touches, but Ja’Marr Chase’s fantasy argument still holds weight due to his impressive production projections.
Touchdowns: Brock Bowers is poised to produce an impressive 14 touchdowns as a rookie. Josh Jacobs (10) and Ashton Jeanty (8) also have notable projections in this category.
Sacks: T.J. Watt is projected for 13 sacks, despite the uncertainty surrounding some players’ contract situations. Maxx Crosby follows closely at 10 sacks.
Interceptions: The Ravens are expected to lead the league with 5 interceptions, led by Alexander’s play and the team’s second-highest-rated secondary. Kerby Joseph (3.9) is also projected for a high interception total.
Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-nfl-season-projecting-stat-leaders-in-11-major-categories