NFP Expectations Downgraded to 110k, But ADP Data Misses

The job market is expected to create around 110,000 new nonfarm jobs tomorrow, a downgrade from the previous month’s 139,000. However, bond markets are predicting an even lower number, which isn’t surprising given other data suggesting a weaker labor market.

Yesterday’s ADP employment report was also closely watched, but it disappointed expectations with a 35,000 job loss instead of a gain of 95,000. The initial rally in bonds due to the report has since faded, possibly due to existing market trends and concerns about ADP’s accuracy.

The data is being viewed as part of a larger trend, rather than a significant change. Tomorrow’s NFP report will be closely watched, but for now, investors are cautiously optimistic about the job market.

Source: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07022025